We can use Bayes' Theorem to estimate the probability of someone not having an effect (meaning they get infected after vaccination) for both Covishield and Covaxin, considering a population of 1.4 billion individuals. Assumptions: We assume equal distribution of both vaccines in the population (700 million each). We focus on individual protection probabilities, not overall disease prevalence. Calculations: Covishield: Prior Probability (P(Effect)): Assume 10% of the vaccinated population gets infected (no effect), making P(Effect) = 0.1. Likelihood (P(No Effect|Effect)): This represents the probability of someone not being infected given they received Covishield. Given its 90% effectiveness, P(No Effect|Effect) = 0.9. Marginal Probability (P(No Effect)): This needs calculation, considering both vaccinated and unvaccinated scenarios. P(No Effect) = P(No Effect|Vaccinated) * P(Vaccinated) + P(No Effect|Unvaccinated) * P(Unvaccinated) Assuming 50% effectiveness for unvaccinated indivi...
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