Showing posts with label probability. Show all posts
Showing posts with label probability. Show all posts

Monday

PDF & CDF

         I saw that students are unclear about #PDF [probability density function] and #CDF [cumulative density function].

I would be glad to provide a comprehensive explanation of probability density functions (PDFs) and cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), incorporating the best aspects of the previous responses and addressing any potential shortcomings:

Probability Density Function (PDF): A PDF is a mathematical function that describes the probability distribution of a continuous random variable. It represents the likelihood of a random variable taking on a particular value within a certain range.

The PDF is always non-negative and its integral over its entire range must equal 1.

For a continuous random variable X, the PDF is denoted as f(x).

The probability of X falling within a certain range [a, b] is given by the integral of the PDF over that range: P(a ≤ X ≤ b) = ∫[a, b] f(x) dx.

Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF): A CDF is a mathematical function that gives the probability that a random variable is less than or equal to a certain value. It is the integral of the PDF from negative infinity to that value.

For a continuous random variable X, the CDF is denoted as F(x). The CDF is always non-decreasing and its values range from 0 to 1.

The probability of X being less than or equal to a value x is given by F(x): P(X ≤ x) = F(x).


Relationship between PDF and CDF

The PDF is the derivative of the CDF: f(x) = dF(x)/dx.

The CDF is the integral of the PDF: F(x) = ∫[-∞, x] f(t) dt.


Minimal Example

Consider the uniform distribution over the interval [0, 1].

The PDF is: f(x) = 1, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1 f(x) = 0, otherwise The CDF is: F(x) = 0, x lt; 0 F(x) = x, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1 F(x) = 1, x > 1 Key Points PDFs and CDFs are fundamental concepts in probability theory.

PDFs describe the likelihood of a random variable taking on a particular value. CDFs give the probability that a random variable is less than or equal to a certain value.

PDFs and CDFs are related through differentiation and integration.

Another small example of PDF

Given a probability density function, f(x) = 1/100, what is the probability

P(10<X<20), where X~Uniform[0, 100]?

We use the probability density function (PDF) to calculate probabilities over intervals when dealing with continuous random variables. 

Since X is uniformly distributed over [0, 100] with f(x) = 1/100,

we calculate P(10 < X < 20) as follows:

P(10 < X < 20) = ∫₁₀²₀ f(x) dx

For a uniform distribution, f(x) = 1/100:

P(10 < X < 20) = ∫₁₀²₀ (1/100) dx = 1/100 × (20 - 10) = 1/100 × 10 = 0.1

Therefore, the probability P(10 < X < 20) is 0.1.


Tuesday

Calculating Vaccine Effectiveness with Bayes' Theorem


We can use Bayes' Theorem to estimate the probability of someone not having an effect (meaning they get infected after vaccination) for both Covishield and Covaxin, considering a population of 1.4 billion individuals.


Assumptions:


We assume equal distribution of both vaccines in the population (700 million each).


We focus on individual protection probabilities, not overall disease prevalence.


Calculations:


Covishield:


Prior Probability (P(Effect)): Assume 10% of the vaccinated population gets infected (no effect), making P(Effect) = 0.1.


Likelihood (P(No Effect|Effect)): This represents the probability of someone not being infected given they received Covishield. Given its 90% effectiveness, P(No Effect|Effect) = 0.9.


Marginal Probability (P(No Effect)): This needs calculation, considering both vaccinated and unvaccinated scenarios. P(No Effect) = P(No Effect|Vaccinated) * P(Vaccinated) + P(No Effect|Unvaccinated) * P(Unvaccinated) Assuming 50% effectiveness for unvaccinated individuals and equal vaccination rates, P(No Effect) = (0.9  0.5) + (0.5  0.5) = 0.7.


Now, applying Bayes' Theorem:


P(Effect|No Effect) = (P(No Effect|Effect) * P(Effect)) / P(No Effect) * P(Effect|No Effect) = (0.9  0.1) / 0.7 ≈ 0.129


Therefore, about 12.9% of people vaccinated with Covishield could still get infected, meaning 700 million * 0.129 ≈ 90.3 million individuals might not have the desired effect from the vaccine.


Covaxin:


Similar calculations for Covaxin, with its 78-81% effectiveness range, would yield a range of 19.5% - 22.2% for the "no effect" probability. This translates to potentially 136.5 million - 155.4 million individuals not fully protected by Covaxin in the given population.


Important Note:


These are hypothetical calculations based on limited assumptions. Real-world effectiveness can vary depending on individual factors, virus strains, and vaccination coverage.


Conclusion:


Both Covishield and Covaxin offer significant protection against COVID-19, but they are not 100% effective. A significant portion of the vaccinated population might still have some risk of infection. Vaccination remains crucial for reducing disease spread and severe outcomes, but additional precautions like hand hygiene and masks might be advisable.